According to a news reports from the IMRG, online delivery volumes have recovered in recent months.
After a slow start to the year, for the first time in 2015, the year-to-date growth now exceeds the start-of-year forecast after order volumes grew 18.9% year-on-year in September.
Last month (August) the cumulative growth figure hit 13% – which was exactly in line with the IMRG’s forecast – and this month reached 13.6%.
The trend line for 2015 is now once again exactly in parallel with that of 2014, giving considerable confidence in IMRG’s projections for the rest of the year, and there are indications that the growth rate is building as we move into the peak shopping period.
A month-on-month fall between August and September is the established trend, but this year the fall was -2.8%; last year it was sharper at -3.5%, possibly suggesting a stronger peak for orders than we saw last year.
Andrew Starkey, head of e-logistics, IMRG, says: “We know that major UK online retailers are anticipating strong growth over Q4, perhaps as much as 20% year-on-year for the quarter.This will include upturns of circa 30% or more over the super-peak days of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.The growth rate in order volumes this month is approaching this 20% figure and suggests we could be heading for a big final quarter, perhaps fuelled by the mild September and October we have had which may have suppressed sales of winter fashion lines and could increase the volumes of discounted stock available over the Black Friday / Cyber Monday period. While a lot of work has gone into preparing for peak by the logistics industry, variables such as the weather can impact the size and scale of peak, so this is one area for industry to monitor closely.”
Kees de Vos, chief product and marketing officer, MetaPack, adds: “It is great to see that we are now exceeding the growth forecast. Our observation is that retailers, carriers and delivery services have already put frameworks in place for the peak period, which will enable them to manage what could be a four-fold increase in orders. As such we are better positioned to maximise the massive opportunity that it affords us all and really boost delivery volumes in the final quarter of the year.”